Status of U.S. Covid-19 Vaccinations
Overview
The U.S. got a head start on the rest of the world on developing vaccines and was among the first to begin to vaccinate its population.
As of April 18, 2021, about 26% of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated. Estimates indicate that at least 70% of the population will need to be vaccinated to control the virus. Some studies indicate that 80% or even 85% of the population will need vaccinations to control it.
The chart below shows the fraction of the U.S. population that has been fully vaccinated with time (in green) along with a simple forecast (blue dotted line). The forecast is based on an average number of people who have become fully vaccinated over the week prior to the end of the data.
If the U.S maintains its current trend, it will not achieve the minimum 70% goal that many think is needed until the middle of July. Several things can improve the trend including increased vaccine production and more efficient vaccine distribution. Many things can make the trend worse including vaccine manufacturing problems, distribution issues and push-back from members of groups who fear or oppose vaccinations.
Daily Doses
The chart below presents a positive trend of increasing daily vaccination doses. This is encouraging because it seems to indicate that in spite of the difficulties in reaching some communities and issues with the Johnson and Johnson vaccine that have resulted in pausing its use, the U.S. is doing better at getting its population vaccinated.
Variation Among States
Individual states vary in the population that has been fully vaccinated. Some states have vaccinated less than 20% of their population while others as have fully vaccinated a bit over 30% of theirs. Variations are due to a variety of factors including allocation from the federal government, inefficiencies and inconsistencies between state health departments, population density, and more.
Select a state in the dropdown box below to see how it compares to others.
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Politics
A disconcerting variable that seems to be playing a role in U.S. vaccination progress is that of politics.
State governors have a great deal of control over both the message around public health issues like vaccinations and administrative control over the tools to physically get people vaccinated.
Another way to look at the influence of politics is by shading according the Cook Partisan Voting Index
Shading states based on voting margins in the 2020 Presidential election gives a similar looking result: